In the most recent Alaska 1st congressional district poll (AtlasIntel, Oct 28 - Nov 1, 2026, n=522 LV), Hill (Bill) (I) leads with 46.6%, followed by Begich (R) at 46.5%, Hafner (D) at 5.9% and McDermott (L) at 0.3%.
Data is synced continuously from the New York Times, which aggregates surveys from major pollsters. The table shows individual pollster results. The map uses the same 2026 non-partisan polling average and candidate-selection method as the homepage maps.
At a glance
- Polls tracked
- 21
- Pollsters
- 10
- Field dates
- Mar 7, 2025 – Nov 1, 2026
- Stages
- General election (19), Primary (2)
- Most recent poll
- Nov 1, 2026
All polls
| Pollster | Partisan | Field dates | Stage | Sample | Results | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | Oct 28 - Nov 1, 2026 | General election | n=522 LV | Hill (Bill) (I): 46.6% Begich (R): 46.5% Hafner (D): 5.9% | I+0.1% | link | |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Oct 23 - 30, 2026 | General election | n=610 LV | Begich (R): 44% Hill (Bill) (I): 37.2% Don't know: 7.6% | R+6.8% | link | |
| Data for Progress | Oct 8 - 16, 2026 | General election | n=659 LV | Begich (R): 51% Hill (Bill) (I): 49% | R+2% | link | |
| Alaska Survey Research | Oct 1 - 3, 2026 | General election | n=1512 LV | Begich (R): 52.7% Hill (Bill) (I): 47.3% | R+5.4% | link | |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Sep 24 - Oct 1, 2026 | General election | n=476 LV | Begich (R): 53.04% Hill (Bill) (I): 46.96% | R+6.1% | link | |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | Sep 8 - 11, 2026 | General election | n=800 LV | Begich (R): 57% Hill (Bill) (I): 43% | R+14% | link | |
| The Bullfinch Group | Ind | Sep 1 - 6, 2026 | General election | n=820 LV | Begich (R): 44.2% Hill (Bill) (I): 36.6% Don't know: 9.9% | R+7.6% | link |
| Alaska Survey Research | Aug 20 - 23, 2026 | General election | n=1872 LV | Begich (R): 50.6% Hill (Bill) (I): 39.1% Williams (John) (D): 5.7% | R+11.5% | link | |
| GBAO | Ind | Aug 3 - 5, 2026 | General election | n=500 LV | Begich (R): 46% Hill (Bill) (I): 42% | R+4% | link |
| Alaska Survey Research | Aug 2 - 5, 2026 | General election | n=1371 LV | Begich (R): 53.6% Hill (Bill) (I): 46.5% | R+7.1% | link | |
| Data for Progress | Jul 28 - Aug 4, 2026 | General election | n=605 LV | Begich (R): 47% Hill (Bill) (I): 37% Neither: 12% | R+10% | link | |
| The Bullfinch Group | Ind | Jul 13 - 16, 2026 | General election | n=546 LV | Begich (R): 46% Schultz (Matt) (D): 32% Hill (Bill) (I): 20% | R+14% | link |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Jun 15 - 29, 2026 | General election | n=593 LV | Begich (R): 51.14% Schultz (Matt) (D): 39.16% Don't know: 8.63% | R+12% | link | |
| Tavern Research | Ind | May 18 - 27, 2026 | General election | n=452 LV | Begich (R): 55% Democrat (D): 45% | R+10% | link |
| Alaska Survey Research | May 14 - 17, 2026 | Primary | n=1401 LV | Begich (R): 46.8% Schultz (Matt) (D): 28.4% Hill (Bill) (I): 12.8% | +18.4% | link | |
| Alaska Survey Research | Apr 16 - 19, 2026 | Primary | n=1923 LV | Begich (R): 46% Schultz (Matt) (D): 28.9% Hill (Bill) (I): 11.3% | +17.1% | link | |
| Change Research | Ind | Mar 17 - 20, 2026 | General election | n=624 LV | Begich (R): 44.78% Don't know: 17.8% Schultz (Matt) (D): 17.38% | R+27.4% | link |
| Public Policy Polling | Ind | Feb 11 - 12, 2026 | General election | n=600 LV | Begich (R): 46% Schultz (Matt) (D): 39% Don't know: 15% | R+7% | link |
| Data for Progress | Oct 17 - 23, 2025 | General election | n=823 LV | Begich (R): 48% Schultz (Matt) (D): 37% Neither: 8% | R+11% | link | |
| Data for Progress | Jul 21 - 27, 2025 | General election | n=678 LV | Republican (R): 48% Democrat (D): 38% Don't know: 13% | R+10% | link | |
| Data for Progress | Feb 28 - Mar 7, 2025 | General election | n=1008 LV | Begich (R): 46% Peltola (D): 46% Neither: 5% | TIE | link |
21 of 21 polls shown, most recent first. Every number is a single pollster's reported result — no polling average is calculated here. Partisan shows the source’s party flag; a blank means no partisan affiliation is marked.